...Kalman Ziha The probabilistic safety analysis evaluates system reliability and failure probability by using statistics and probability theory. However, it cannot estimate the system safety uncertainties due to variabilities of probabilities in different system states. The article first summarizes...

... in building energy modeling, due to both random factors and imprecise knowledge. The framework is shown by a numerical case study of sizing cooling loads, in which uncertain climatic data are represented by probability distributions and human-driven activities are described by possibility distributions...

... 12 01 2018 Computational reliability methods Failure Probability Reliability Weighted k -out-of- n system has been widely used in the design of engineering systems including power generation systems [ 1 ], queuing systems [ 2 ], and lighting systems [ 3 ]. It was first...

... are proposed, which are entropy, conditional entropy, and mutual information associated with the probabilities of successful prediction and communication. A new probabilistic design framework for CPS network architecture is also proposed for resilience engineering, where several information fusion rules can...

... probability of each component is defined as a failure probability of filter replacement obtained by using a grace period to filter failure. Finally, based on an event tree, a core damage frequency has been estimated by multiplying discrete hazard frequencies by conditional decay heat removal failure...

...) g i ( N S − i , N L − i ) = N S − i − N L − i = 0 Since the distributions are general types, we need to use the interference theory to calculate the probability of failure. The probability of failure at the stress level s i by using...

.... In addition, the paper shows that the probability of simultaneous presence of critical events is practically insensitive to the distribution of the events durations. These counter-intuitive results provide the powerful opportunity to evaluate the risk of overlapping of random events through the mean duration...

..., the identified uncertainty is propagated with the help of probabilistic crack growth models coupled with the Boolean threshold functions to obtain the probability density function of RFL of the topside piping [ 16 ]. Fig. 8 Uncertainty sources during RFL assessment of offshore piping 1...

... uncertainty, we compare the CDFs of the C L ensembles corrected with 10 and 40 high-fidelity data points, where each CDF sample is corrected by an individual GP realization before the aggregation. The CDFs comparison is shown in Fig. 7 . For both cases, the probability regions covered by scattered CDF...

.... Editor: Yan Wang. 31 08 2016 27 01 2017 Probability Random Uncertainty During the past 30 years, the Bayesian network (BN) has become a key method for representation and reasoning under uncertainty in the fields of engineering [ 1 , 2 ], machine learning [ 3 , 4...

... Identification Based on Probability Logic ,” Struct. Control Health Monit. , 17 ( 7 ), pp. 825 – 847 . 10.1002/stc.424 [17] Hadjidoukas , P. , Angelikopoulos , P. , Papadimitriou , C. , and Koumoutsakos , P. , 2015 , “ Π4U: A High Performance Computing Framework for Bayesian Uncertainty...

... for solving stochastic inverse problems, which seeks a posterior probability density that is consistent with the model and the data in the sense that the push-forward of the posterior (through the computational model) matches the observed density on the observations almost everywhere. Given a set of potential...

... as an example to illustrate how to use MCMC to compute the posterior probability distribution of CBN. According to Bayesian theory, the posterior probability distribution of Y 1 given Y 5 is represented as follows: (1) p ( Y 1 | Y 5 ) = p ( Y 1 Y 5 ) p...

... at the conceptual design stage. This paper investigates the role of probability of importance in quantifying the level of uncertainty in sketches by raising the following three research questions: How are the features in a sketch ranked? What is the probability of importance of features in a sketch? What...

..., 2016; final manuscript received December 10, 2016; published online June 12, 2017. Assoc. Editor: Mario Di Paola. 17 06 2016 10 12 2016 Probability Random Reliability Reliability based design Safety Structural reliability There is an increasing amount of research...

... of s on the response at different locations of the rod are investigated by the Monte Carlo simulations. The results obtained highlight the importance of s in the probabilistic feature of the response. In particular, it is found that for a small coefficient of variation of s, the probability density...

...Alberto Di Matteo; Antonina Pirrotta In this paper, the probabilistic response of nonlinear systems driven by alpha-stable Lévy white noises is considered. The path integral solution is adopted for determining the evolution of the probability density function of nonlinear oscillators. Specifically...

... of interval stiffness or interval fractional damping, respectively. Manuscript received November 29, 2016; final manuscript received March 10, 2017; published online June 12, 2017. Assoc. Editor: Francesco Paolo Pinnola. 29 11 2016 10 03 2017 Mechanical Probability Random...

... 10 2016 Probability Random Structures Uncertainty In the last decades, the nonlocal beam theories have known a great interest. This is due to their ability to capture the mechanical behavior of beamlike micro- and nano-devices [ 1 – 4 ] that avoid computationally expensive...

... received August 4, 2015; final manuscript received October 12, 2016; published online June 12, 2017. Assoc. Editor: Michael Beer. 04 08 2015 12 10 2016 Marine Probability Reliability Risk analysis Risk assessment Structures Systems reliability Uncertainty Time-dependent...